"Understanding Cyber Risk: Drivers and Impacts in Firms", with Lorenzo Bencivelli and Raffaella Calabrese -Temi di discussione (Working Papers) Bank of Italy. forthcoming.
This paper examines the firm-level determinants and financial consequences of cyberattacks using a dataset that combines survey data from the Bank of Italy with firm balance sheet information from Orbis (2014-2022). We employ panel logistic regression to identify ex-ante predictors of cyberattack exposure and a staggered difference-in-differences design to estimate their ex-post impact on firm performance and liquidity. Our results show that adopting digital technologies, particularly cloud computing and e-commerce platforms, significantly increases cyber risk, while firms integrating advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) alongside cloud services exhibit lower vulnerability. Ex-post analysis reveals that cyberattacks induce short-term liquidity shocks due to operational disruptions, with limited effects on long-term capital structure. These findings highlight the importance of liquidity buffers and cybersecurity preparedness in mitigating financial fallout. The study offers timely insights for corporate financial management and regulatory policy in an increasingly digital economy.
"Making suptech work: evidence on the key drivers of adoption", with Leonardo Gambacorta, Samir Kiuhan-Vásquez and Jermy Prenio (2025) - BIS Working Papers No. 1309.
This paper examines the institutional drivers of adopting supervisory technology (suptech) by financial authorities worldwide. Using survey data from 112 financial authorities across 97 countries from the State of SupTech Report, we analyse how organisational characteristics and strategic frameworks shape the adoption of suptech initiatives. The analysis employs a two-stage hurdle model to track adoption from proof of concept to prototype, and finally to full deployment. We find that authorities with institution-wide strategies for digital transformation, data governance, and suptech deployment use, on average, about 20 additional applications and face fewer design and implementation challenges. Furthermore, while an authority’s size and institutional mandate are significant factors in initiating advanced projects, the establishment of a dedicated suptech unit is the most critical factor in increasing the number of deployed applications. Finally, we find that public cloud adoption is associated with a higher probability of implementing AI tools, while reliance on in-house development is strongly associated with early-stage AI experimentation.
CEPR Discussion Paper 20964 - [here]
Presented at the BIS-BCBS Conference on Simplifying Banking Regulation, 2026.
"Break on through (to the other side) of digital finance" (2026) - Review of Corporate Finance (6:3), forthcoming.
This paper reviews the current state of the academic literature on digital finance, offers policy-relevant insights and links scholarly research with regulatory and supervisory debates. It employs a novel approach to identify policy-relevant studies that are grounded in economic theory, are supported with empirical evidence and are directly connected to ongoing policy discussions. The focus is primarily on technology-based lending (fintech, BigTech and open banking), distributed ledger applications (blockchain, DeFi and CBDCs), cybersecurity risks and supervisory technology (suptech). The analysis reveals significant gaps between academic research and policy analysis, in particular a lack of novel sources of data to support empirical research. The review contributes to the literature by highlighting the need for adaptive regulatory frameworks, stronger cross-border coordination mechanisms and closer collaboration between supervisors and academia to address emerging policy-relevant research questions.
"Payment Systems and System Risks", with Giovanni Cardillo and Giuseppe Torluccio. R&R Europan Journal of Finance.
This paper examines the role of Payment System Relevant Institutions (PSRIs), which include banks that operate payment systems, in amplifying systemic risk during periods of economic stress. Using a dataset of 67 EU banks from 2017 to 2022 and exploiting COVID-19 as a source of exogenous variation, we provide novel and affirmative evidence that PSRI banks significantly increased their contribution to systemic risk during the crisis. This increased vulnerability stems from their operational centrality, combined with a greater exposure to real economy shocks and liquidity pressures, particularly in cases where short-term funding dependence is high. As a result, markets adjusted to this fragility by demanding higher risk premia. Furthermore, PSRI banks with more diversified funding structures, especially those accessing interbank and wholesale markets, exhibited greater resilience, which helped to mitigate contagion effects. Additionally, targeted monetary interventions through the Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations (TLTRO) programs provided further insulation for PSRIs during the shock.
Presented at the LSE Financial Market Group conference: Payment Systems Matter: Competition, Innovation, Stability, and Inclusion, 2024.
"Does regulatory-driven innovation affect financial intermediation? Evidence from Open Banking frameworks", Working Paper RSC 2024/1
This paper examines the mechanisms underlying the policy implications of open banking frameworks. The data-sharing policy in financial intermediaries aims to alleviate friction in information asymmetry and promote financial innovation by enhancing market competition and data portability. This study uses a difference in differences approach to explore the impact of adopting open banking on traditional financial intermediaries in the European syndicated loan market. The results reveal a discrepancy across the policy intervention phases. Specifically, the introduction of open banking frameworks leads to a significant reduction in loan interest rates without affecting collateral. However, the regulatory fragmentation in enforcing data-sharing policies and the specific characteristics of syndicated loans limit the positive effects of data portability and interoperability competition. This finding underscores the crucial role of regulators in establishing financial innovation policies and emphasises how private information continues to play a significant role in the syndicated structure.
Presented at IFABS, 2023; Day-Ahead PhD Workshop on Financial Intermediation, 2023.